|There is a Shift Happening!
The 1st five months of the year have already come and gone, where did it go? The latest statistics for real estate activity in the greater Parksville Qualicum Beach is out as is the Second Quarter Housing Forecast by BCREA (British Columbia Real Estate Association).
The month of May, keep in mind only 1 month, resulted in a decrease in sales of 37% in comparison to May 2017. When we look at the 1st 5 months of the year there has been a 21% decrease in the number of sales of Single Family Homes. Interestingly enough the change in volume of sales varies throughout the region: Qualicum Beach +3%, French Creek -30%, Parksville -30%, Nanoose Bay -17%.
With regards to average sale prices for May was up by 11% in comparison to May 2017. The average sale price for Single Family Homes for the 1st five months of the year are up 19% versus the same time frame in 2017. Across the region average sale prices are up though this percentage does vary from 12 to 34%, overall average sale price was $623,677. The number of active listings at the end of May is up 20% in comparison to end of May 2017.
The 2nd Quarter Housing Forecast by BCREA predicts that for the Province of BC we will see a decrease of 9% in the number of sales and yet an increase in the average sale price of 5.1% which seems to be somewhat consistent with the latest local stats. If we look at the VIREB (Vancouver Island Real Estate Board) region they are predicting that overall we will see a 12.4% decrease in number of sales and yet an increase in average sale prices by 4% for Single Family Homes for all of 2018.
The state that two factors mitigating a slowing provincial economy for the Vancouver Island-Coast housing market are it attractiveness to both retirees and the millennial generation.
If you would like to discuss your particular situation or would like additional details for your specific region or style of housing contact TeamW and we would be pleased assist.
In its 2018 Second-Quarter Housing Forecast, the British Columbia Real Estate Association (BCREA) anticipates that MLS® residential sales in the province will decline by nine per cent to 94,200 units this year from 103,700 in 2017.
“B.C. housing markets have benefited from the provincial economy expanding well above trend growth over the past four years,” says BCREA chief economist Cameron Muir. “However, economic growth is expected to slow and reflect the long-term average this year.”
Housing demand in the VIREB area shifted lower in the first four months of 2018 as stricter mortgage qualifications for conventional borrowers took their toll on household purchasing power and affordability. Other economic headwinds that could dampen demand include higher interest rates and new provincial taxes, though we are exempt from the 'Speculation Tax'. However, the attractiveness of Vancouver Island to retirees and millennials is expected to mitigate their impact somewhat.
Despite lower sales thus far in 2018, lack of inventory continues to tilt the market somewhat in favour of sellers and push prices upwards. The pace of these increases could slow somewhat if demand keeps declining, but it is unlikely that prices will drop significatly until additional inventory enters the market by way of new construction.
If you would like to see the statistical summary click here.